WHAT WE DO:
- Analyze all manner of consumer companies, including their historical volume and price trends
- Analyze bank lending (and deposit) data and how it affects the aforementioned consumer companies
- Analyze Fed/central bank data given their importance to the banking system and economy
- Analyze broker-dealer data given their importance as intermediaries in the Treasury market
April 17, 2026
Banks Are Saying One Thing About Consumer Spending; Consumer Companies Are Experiencing Another
Large U.S. banks have characterized consumer spending as “solid” (in the words of Bank of America) and “healthy” (JPMorgan Chase) when reporting their 1Q results this week. Their stance on their private credit exposure is…
April 15, 2026
Why Aren’t Large Banks Building Reserves Amid Slowing Economic Activity?
As I wrote yesterday (link), the theme among large U.S. banks that reported their 1Q results has been the same as in previous quarters/years: booming markets/trading-related businesses, with Main Street businesses (consumer and business lending)…
April 14, 2026
Takeaways from Wells Fargo’s Call: Its Booming Repo Lending is Compressing NIM, and the Iran War-Related Spending Hit Has Yet to be Felt
Wells Fargo missed consensus estimates on its net interest income (NII) in 1Q and expects additional net interest margin (NIM) compression in 2Q, mainly because its repo and other markets-related loans are growing rapidly, which…
April 13, 2026
1Q Paper & Packaging Earnings Season Off to a (Very) Rough Start
In a likely sign of things to come in 1Q paper & packaging earnings season, the Canadian packaging and tissue company Cascades, whose sales are roughly evenly split between the U.S. and Canada, negatively preannounced…
MEDIA APPEARANCES
The Iran war is hitting packaging supply chains. Are the impacts temporary?
3/19/26
By Katie Pyzyk
Trump’s tariffs are driving a wedge through the US economy, further separating the haves from the have-nots
9/26/25
By Alicia Wallace
Cardboard-Box Demand Is Slumping. Why That’s Bad News for the Economy.
9/21/25
By Ryan Dezember
Adam Josephson started Sakonnet Research after the launch of his Substack titled “As the Consumer Turns,” which focuses on the consumer spending economy and on banks.
Previously, he worked in sell-side equity research at KeyBanc Capital Markets for over 15 years covering paper & packaging, precious metals, packaged food, and technology services companies. His Substack research has been cited in The Financial Times, and while a sell-side analyst he was quoted in such publications as The Wall Street Journal.
He’s a CFA charterholder and studied at Brown University and the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
SERVICES
Sakonnet Research provides the following services:
- Customized data on sales/volume trends for retailers, CPG companies, restaurant chains, packaging companies, etc.
- Customized data on banks, broker-dealers, primary dealers’ holdings and transactions, central banks, etc.
- Consulting on request
Please contact Adam for consulting requests.
