WHAT WE DO:
- Analyze all manner of consumer companies, including their historical volume and price trends
- Analyze bank lending (and deposit) data and how it affects the aforementioned consumer companies
- Analyze Fed/central bank data given their importance to the banking system and economy
- Analyze broker-dealer data given their importance as intermediaries in the Treasury market
July 18, 2026
The Relationship Between Margin Debt and U.S. Stock Market Capitalization
I wrote yesterday about the ongoing explosion of margin debt provided by broker-dealers: it hit a new record of $1.5 trillion in June, up nearly 50% YoY and growing wildly disproportionately to the U.S. economy…
July 17, 2026
The Margin Debt Explosion Continues
As cartoonishly good as the big U.S. banks’ 2Q results were (thanks to trading and investment banking activity) to borrow a phrase from Jonathan Weil of the Wall Street Journal (link), just as cartoonish has…
July 15, 2026
Big Banks Reported Blowout 2Q Results. Why Are Their Net Interest Margins Thin And in Some Cases Declining in That Case?
As Jonathan Weil of the Wall Street Journal reported this morning (link), all five big banks that reported their 2Q results yesterday topped revenue and earnings estimates, and some of the numbers were “cartoonishly good.”…
July 14, 2026
The Shift From Price-Insensitive to Price-Sensitive U.S. Treasury Holders Continues
I recently wrote about the ongoing shift in the U.S. Treasury market from price-insensitive holders such as foreign governments and the Federal Reserve (Fed) to price-sensitive holders such as hedge funds (link). I concluded that…
MEDIA APPEARANCES
From Walmart to Wall Street: Who is Really Winning in This Economy?
5/17/26
By Miriam Gottfried & Telis Demos
The Iran war is hitting packaging supply chains. Are the impacts temporary?
3/19/26
By Katie Pyzyk
Trump’s tariffs are driving a wedge through the US economy, further separating the haves from the have-nots
9/26/25
By Alicia Wallace
Cardboard-Box Demand Is Slumping. Why That’s Bad News for the Economy.
9/21/25
By Ryan Dezember
Adam Josephson started Sakonnet Research after the launch of his Substack titled “As the Consumer Turns,” which focuses on the consumer spending economy and on banks.
Previously, he worked in sell-side equity research at KeyBanc Capital Markets for over 15 years covering paper & packaging, precious metals, packaged food, and technology services companies. His Substack research has been cited in The Financial Times, and while a sell-side analyst he was quoted in such publications as The Wall Street Journal.
He’s a CFA charterholder and studied at Brown University and the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
SERVICES
Sakonnet Research provides the following services:
- Customized data on sales/volume trends for retailers, CPG companies, restaurant chains, packaging companies, etc.
- Customized data on banks, broker-dealers, primary dealers’ holdings and transactions, central banks, etc.
- Consulting on request
Please contact Adam for consulting requests.
