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April 17, 2026

Banks Are Saying One Thing About Consumer Spending; Consumer Companies Are Experiencing Another

By Adam Josephson

Large U.S. banks have characterized consumer spending as “solid” (in the words of Bank of America) and “healthy” (JPMorgan Chase) when reporting their 1Q results this week. Their stance on their private credit exposure is…

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April 15, 2026

Why Aren’t Large Banks Building Reserves Amid Slowing Economic Activity?

By Adam Josephson

As I wrote yesterday (link), the theme among large U.S. banks that reported their 1Q results has been the same as in previous quarters/years: booming markets/trading-related businesses, with Main Street businesses (consumer and business lending)…

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April 14, 2026

Takeaways from Wells Fargo’s Call: Its Booming Repo Lending is Compressing NIM, and the Iran War-Related Spending Hit Has Yet to be Felt

By Adam Josephson

Wells Fargo missed consensus estimates on its net interest income (NII) in 1Q and expects additional net interest margin (NIM) compression in 2Q, mainly because its repo and other markets-related loans are growing rapidly, which…

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April 13, 2026

1Q Paper & Packaging Earnings Season Off to a (Very) Rough Start

By Adam Josephson

In a likely sign of things to come in 1Q paper & packaging earnings season, the Canadian packaging and tissue company Cascades, whose sales are roughly evenly split between the U.S. and Canada, negatively preannounced…

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April 12, 2026

The “Magic” of Private Credit/Equity Fund Returns Via Secondaries

By Adam Josephson

The Financial Times ran a story last week on the boom in secondary transactions/secondaries (link), which have become increasingly popular as private equity (PE)/buyout firms have struggled to sell their portfolio companies. They’re likely to…

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April 10, 2026

No Real Income Growth In Six Years

By Adam Josephson

I’ve written about the ongoing struggles of all manner of consumer-related companies aside from those that cater mainly or exclusively to the rich (link), and noted that one of the explanations is stagnant inflation-adjusted income…

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April 9, 2026

Yet Another Consumer Company With Sales Problems

By Adam Josephson

I’ve written extensively about the chronic sales weakness among a wide range of consumer-related companies, and that weakness predated the Iran war. Just last week, Nike and RH guided to current quarter sales well below…

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April 6, 2026

What Are the Underlying Reasons for the Private Credit Mess?

By Adam Josephson

The latest in a long line of bombshells pertaining to the private credit industry occurred last week when Blue Owl disclosed that investors wanted to redeem more than 20% of shares from its $36 billion…

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March 31, 2026

Yet More Consumer Company Sales Weakness

By Adam Josephson

I wrote yesterday about the numerous problems that consumer staples companies and other consumer-related companies are having (link). Today brought plenty more of the same. McCormick: Reported its lowest organic sales growth rate (1.2%) since…

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March 30, 2026

Staples Companies’ Dilemma

By Adam Josephson

My last note was about the chronic weakness in U.S. discretionary spending over the past two years owing to several factors including the cumulative effects of high inflation, lack of real income growth post-pandemic, sharp…

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