June 16, 2026
Margin Debt Keeps Hitting New Records Amid Stock Market Ebullience
For those wondering where all the retail and institutional money came from/is coming from to fund the SpaceX IPO and subsequent dramatic advance in its share price (myself included!), we got one likely answer today…
June 10, 2026
Containerboard Producers Warning About Rapidly Rising Costs
I wrote two days ago (link) about the potential adverse impact of rising freight and old corrugated container (OCC) costs on the publicly traded containerboard producers in 2Q. This morning, the third-largest North American containerboard…
June 10, 2026
Real Average Weekly Earnings Down for the Third Straight Month
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) rose by a seasonally adjusted 0.5% in May (4.2% YoY) as inflation continues to surge following the Iran war. As a…
June 8, 2026
Box Industry Update: Continued Cost Inflation and Lackluster Demand
I recently hosted a call with several U.S. boxmakers. Containerboard and box industry conditions have been problematic following the pandemic demand bubble: U.S. box shipments are back down to 2015 levels (link) and inflationary pressures…
June 3, 2026
Fed’s Beige Book Survey Points to Broadening Income Pressures
The Federal Reserve published its Beige Book survey this afternoon (link), which comes out eight times per year. The Fed noted increasingly bifurcated consumer spending across income groups amid “affordability pressures.” “Higher-income households remained resilient…
June 1, 2026
Why is Real Spending Growing While Real Income is Falling?
I wrote last week about the historically low personal saving rate in April (link), the result of declining real income (inflation growing at a rate in excess of income). Indeed, real disposable personal income fell…
May 31, 2026
Yet Another Type of Regulatory Arbitrage Comes to the Surface
The Office of Financial Research (OFR) published a piece last week titled “Affiliate Repo” (link) that may not be a page-turner for many readers but which highlights the broken state of U.S. bank regulations in…
May 28, 2026
The Personal Saving Rate is Approaching Historic Lows
In today’s Personal Income and Outlays release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) was the personal saving rate, which measures the percentage of disposable personal income that Americans are saving. The saving rate has…
May 27, 2026
What to Make of the Surge in Bank Lending in 1Q?
The FDIC published its 1Q26 Quarterly Banking Profile this morning (link). In it, the FDIC noted that the banking industry’s loan growth rate of 7.1% was the fastest since 2Q23. The industry’s rapid and accelerating…
May 26, 2026
The Composition of Foreign-Held Treasurys Has Changed Markedly
As long-term global government bond yields move ever higher amid concerns about persistent inflationary pressures and rising government deficits and debt, it’s worth revisiting the changing composition of U.S. Treasury ownership. One of the largest…